I always read my year-end review last year, and see how things compare. At least on the economy front, the downward trend of US seems to be abating. Contrast with the high unemployment of 9.8% in 2010, we have 8.9% in 2011, which is still terrible, but at least there's some reduction. It's cold comfort for those millions of people who are unemployed and can't find a job. There was much talk of the green job pipe dreams of Obama who hopes that the green energy is going to be the new job creating industry in US, much like the IT sector did in the last decade. In a big democracy, doing that kind of government-backed initiative is always messy, sometimes even scandalous. Three years on, that stands in stark contrast with the rise of the solar industry in China which looks to be eating everybody's lunch, including US and Germany, driving down prices and picking up market share. But what would happen to the Chinese solar manufacturers when customers disappear, like the coming exit of the solar subsidies in Germany in 2012?
Which brings us to the topic of China's economy. The US economy is on the mend, though painfully slow. China has been trending down throughout 2011, and more still in 2012. The slow train wreck in Europe is going to roll into 2012, ensnaring Italy too, which is the third largest economy in the Euro zone. France doesn't look so strong now, and I've never been too impressed by Sarkozy who is more apt at grabbing news headline with his supermodel wife or tries to look like the boss when he's not it. Everyone looks to Germany to do something - anything - which is to say, everyone wants Germany to pay up, and pay up some more. I almost feel bad for Germany for such terrible bind since she wants Euro to stand, but they would not have been able to do so without committing yet more resources in bailouts and firewalls for the weaker economies in the euro zone.
As I don't go to China that often, I look to Hong Kong as a good proxy indicator of its health since the Hong Kong economy and markets are so inexplicably linked to those in China. The property market in Hong Kong has been trending down throughout 2011, with transaction volume going down, albeit no major crash in property prices...yet. Hang Seng Index has been off its high. There's been much talk of the softening of economy in China, with commodity prices trending down too, dragging commodity-heavy currencies like AUD and CAD down off of their highs. China will go down for sure, though it's anyone's guess if it's gonna be 2012 or pushed out to 2013. No doubt the Chinese central government is going to mobilize its trillion-dollar reserve to prop up the economy, the question really is, how long they can do so, without triggering inflation, building up the bubbles in properties and stocks some more, and depleting its reserve. The rising economy, and by proxy, the political power that comes with the economic heft, is the only thing that legitimates the continual rule of the communist government which will do whatever it takes to prop it up. For a chance, I'm sure the governments in US and Europe are going to be happy to see the Chinese government continue to play its part.
Japan is in its usual path of muddling along, so we can forget about that for a bit. (Yes, yes, there's been much talk about the impact of the tsunami and earthquake, but let's face it, Japan has been in the doldrums for so long now that no one really pays too much heed of it anymore.)
It's a low-key turning point on the personal front. I finished my masters degree this year, and almost right after, work with a startup starts while holding down my regular job. It's a lot of work, but it's fun. I can't ask for more, and more perfect timing.
Stock trading strategy continues to evolve. There's no more easy money to be made, like we saw in 2009 when everything - yes, literally everything - bounced from its low, and you could easily get 20% return just by going in the stock market. 2010 got tougher, and by 2011, you can see the charts of almost all stocks are trending down. I don't even feel like being in the market because the gut feel is telling me that something bad is going to happen. It might not be a flash crash one-time event in 2010; nay, it's going to be something bad that is more sustained. Don't ask me where this gut feel comes from, but I always trust my gut feel. (The only few times I dismissed my gut feel, I turn out to be wrong and I should have trusted my instinct on those occasions.)
Kids continue to grow, and parents' health continue the slow decline. I don't really want anything major to happen on these fronts.
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As a side note, there were people passed away in 2011, but Steve Jobs was the one who moved me. The worldwide outpouring was swift and powerful, overwhelmingly positive, with negative ones sprinkled here and there, mostly on how he was such a prick and jerk and in treating people badly. But what moved me was his personal narrative, the way he had handled his rise and fall and rise again, how he had loved what he did throughout. There is no mention of money which looks to be the overarching goal of entrepreneurs and IT startups these days. Jobs took the Silicon Valley baton from the pioneers of HP, but there are very, very few in the Silicon Valley who truly can take the baton to pass it on. It's such a shame.
