On my support for Brexit and its win in referendum...

I haven't been writing in my journal for a few months now. Too busy with other things, I guess, or maybe there's just too much same-old-same-old. There were however a few things worthy to note, one of which is the rout within the GOP after Donald Trump won the de facto nomination (which is worthy to note in another post), but the more recent one was the Brexit vote on June 23, in which Britain has voted 52% to 48% in favor of leaving the EU.

It was said that the Brexit vote shows generation divide among young voters (who more strongly favor staying in the EU in general) and old voters (who mostly want UK to stand on its own feet again). There's talk of despair among young voters after they lost the referendum, of fear from uncertainty, of resentment toward the elders who "sold them out," as they call it.

There was also talk of racial bigotry against immigration as it shaped up to be one key issues (inability to control immigration within EU and burdensome regulations from EU), hence the disparage of less affluent, less educated, lower-class voters by those citizens-of-the-world class championed in the City of London where its financial hub thrives, thrashing those who wanted out as anyone who can't handle change or uncertainty or competition.

The intense campaigning and drumbeat of the Brexit referendum from the Remain campaign and the Leave campaign, what with all the misinformation matches those from the Trump campaign. Both sides are to blame in the playing up of the element fear, of uncertainty.

In the Remain campaign, David Cameron, the PM who resigned the next day after losing the Brexit vote, and all business elites worked incredibly hard as trumpeting the call of mass exodus of jobs and business headquarters and financial services out of UK and London to the continent. For a while, I almost thought that worked for them; afterall, Cameron used the very same tactics during Scotland referendum for independence in 2014. History would not repeat itself with the mainland, and it goes to show the Englishmen prefer pride and independence more so than the Highlanders.

On the other side of the fence, the Leave campaign played up the element of fear from a different vantage point. There is the uncontrolled immigration primarily from eastern European countries who are free to come to UK to work, enjoy its healthcare and welfare system, pushing down wages with intense competition for low-end jobs, all of which UK cannot say no because they are part of one big happy (not) family within the EU. Even the debunked euro-myth of EU regulations governing the shape of bananas sold is still much cited by by the Leave campaigners, including the ex-London Mayor, Boris Johnson. While the banana regulation might not be true, there are plenty other regulations in all shapes and forms across all industries to pick on. While they might not be worthy for news headline, anyone who finds Brussels overbearing will not have a hard time finding something to chew on.

There is much parallels between the steady-hand campaign message from Hillary Clinton, and the upstart, rock the boat messages (for better or worse) from Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders in this very season of primaries season on this side of the Atlantic. Clinton mirrors (and supports) the Remain campaign, Trump bleats about the Brexit vote that Leave won. The underlying current, voter angst and distrust of anything that establishment told them, is very real. It didn't help that the chiming in by other foreign dignitaries, including Obama and Merkel and Juncker (as if UK voters care about what Juncker had to say), essentially telling UK voters to not do the stupid thing (ie. to vote to leave EU), akin to very stern talking down to them like little school children by their principal. Even my kids would tell me, long before the vote, that the approach will not work. It didn't.

So now, after the Brexit vote, Cameron is out with more carnage to come. The one person who should be running scare right now, should be Hillary Clinton.  But...I'm digressing.

Why do young voters, those under 35 in general, were so scare? It's indeed conceivable for much of their apprehension. Afterall they had born into this world, knowing nothing about Britain being its own country, when all they know in their life is UK being part of EU. Indeed it would be hard for them to fathom a time when their country had been standing all alone when the Nazis came marching across the continent, and all those countries in the continent were dropping like flies. The Brits were tough, and they were blessed with visionary leaders like Winston Churchill who had the wisdom and toughness to stand against the wind.

In modern times, the marching does not come with guns and weaponry, but with trade and dollar bills. While I don't want to thrash the younger generations to be as weak as the Vichy government back in WWII days whose job in collaborating with the occupied force of Nazis, there is much parallel in that. All it takes, is to wave "a good life" in front of time, and their knees would turn to mush. In modern times, these younger folks would cloak that in another euphemism called inclusion, or progressiveness, or pan-internationalism, or liberalism, whatever.  No matter, the result is the same, which is that they are all too ready to give up sovereignty and self-control for a better life, an easier life.

So, why do I support Brexit?

I've supported Thatcher back then with keeping GBP alive, even if UK opted to join EC (the precursor of EU).  Ease of bilateral trade can indeed be beneficial to everyone. I worked in the financial sector at the time when Euro was rolled out in 2000, and I never understood. (Well, of course I could certainly hear all the "benefits" from the Euro camp, but I was never convinced or sold on how ECB can manage a single currency for so many countries, even with the disparity back then between the economic fortunes for the smaller eurozone was substantial less than what it is today.) At least with GBP still alive, Bank of England can effect some change to its economic fate in terms of fiscal and monetary policy. Without GBP? Well, you need to look no further than Greece, and the deep shit it's in. Enough said.

I have always considered free movement of all EU citizens to all EU countries to be possible only if these countries are largely on the same boat, with similar economic fortunes. That was indeed the case in the earlier days of EC, and then EU. With the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the break-up of the Soviet Union, all its former communist satellites were let loose. Over the years, western Europe has rushed to embrace these poor cousins, starting with East Germany.

One has to realize, having a meal with someone is not the same as going to bed. What started as a trade bloc and strategic alliance (in the form of NATO) now requires much than just trade agreement or sharing with military secrets, all of which individual countries can choose to do with, or without, because they still retain that modicum of control. When you give up your currency, you give up your ability to control both fiscal and monetary policy. For small countries rushing to join the big boy's league, there might be argument for that; but a country that is more than capable of doing that, why would you give that up? And when free movement suddenly means open border and free for all (including welfare and health care), all while your own citizens are struggling, it all makes so much less sense.

Some would call me ranting and fear-mongering, but is it really? There is even name-calling from younger voters, of how older voters ruining their future. Is that the only future they can envision? (If yes, it'll be the saddest thing of all.) For those young people who says they want to be part of Europe too. What's stopping them? They still can move anywhere of their choosing. Is showing a passport that big of a deal, as compared to giving up their country's fiscal and monetary policy and border control? I would argue that it's not.

Thirty years on, and one global recession (circa 2008) later, we now know the wisdom from Thatcher (even if it's just on GBP alone). Some would call it isolationism, or rolling back the clock in the face of global trade deals like NAFTA. As the young people and working class (both of whom are struggling) in US would attest to it, global trade deals invariably benefit multinational corporations who won't have nary a care about local livelihood or ruined economies because the trade deals allow them to simply move from one country to another after devouring everything from that land. When will the young voters in UK wake up to that? While we're on that, when will Scotland and Northern Ireland (both of whom now want to breakaway from UK to join EU) start to learn something from the unfolding debacles in Greece who is still paying the price to stay in the eurozone, with no end in sight.

By the way, I never see immigration as the main issue for Brexit. I see sovereign control on issues pertinent within its own borders to be of paramount importance. Immigration, if regulated and managed properly, can be a good thing. This should be something that US should learn something about as well, rather than the Democrats (and Obama's) assertion to provide pseudo amnesty to all illegal migrants, just because they manage to cross the borders. If anything, I find that offensive. To me, it has nothing to do with nativism, or racial bigotry.

I do hope Brexit would serve a case study for other countries, not only for those who rush to join trade deals, but also for those who believe being a hanger-on to someone else's coattails is the only way to live and compete with competitors like China.

As to the aftermath of Brexit, EU now wants UK to leave as soon as possible as if contagion will not happen. It only goes to show how out of touch with reality those in Brussels are. Anti-establishment sentiment has been rising substantially in all countries (and not just on the continent due to the refugee/migrant crisis from the Middle East). Even if the exit UK is to complete tomorrow, those parties like Podemos in Spain, or Marine Le Pen in France, and even the Five Star Movement in Italy will accelerate in their rise.  While Trump is crass, crude, and at times, even comical, one would be foolish to dismiss him as an also-ran.

I do look forward to a day when Britain would show the world that there is a third way to survive and thrive in this increasingly competitive globalized world. If there is anything that we should learn from Britain (and Churchill), standing all alone in the face of great adversity, with much courage and vision, we should realize that British voters might have once again shown us that that courage and vision. The question now is, do the Brits have another visionary leaders like Churchill to march with them?

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I should say though, that one area that Britain would definitely lose out, is the seat at the big boys' table. The Brits have been profoundly apt in playing politics on the world stage. Leaving EU would mean it's vacating its seat on the EU table. I would suspect though, that over time, UK will find its way in again, when Germany needs a more capable ally than France on all EU matters.