Saturday, February 4, 2017

On the besieged and defiant EU (against Trump, and Brexit)...

As the new pseudo reality show that could aptly be named The White House Apprentice, scripted, acted, and directed by the one-man band of Donald Trump, the world audience in Europe and Asia responds in kind. It could have been a fun show to watch, if not for the high stakes involved.

Trump is indeed a man in a hurry. Never mind the usual honeymoon period of the first 100 days after taking office, Trump is giving us something every single day, doling out executive orders like candies to children, while most adults-in-the-room are getting furious about it, perhaps quite rightly so.

The talk-of-the-moment is the executive order from Trump to ban muslims into US temporarily for 90 days. It causes numerous protests at airports by opposition, spawns numerous lawsuits against the federal government, resulting in knee-jerk reaction from at least one federal judge to halt the ban, the firing of a Justice Department who vows not to defend that ban, tons of chatters in main media and social media among liberal groups against it, and now, of course, European leaders come out swinging against Trump.

Curiously enough, there is almost no mention of what average people think of it, which, as evident in polls after polls, average folks approve of it.  And although there's so much outrage against Trump's use of executive orders, he's not even the winner of the title for a president signing the most number of executive orders in the first two weeks in office. That honor went to Obama (for a total of 9), while Trump came second (with 8), and then Truman (with 7). The use of executive orders always outrage those voters whose choice party lost in the election, such as it is with Trump, as was the case with Obama too.

Such is the wide gulf between the high ideal of liberal set, and those who live in the trench and who are charged with fighting the actual fight. Then again, isn't that exactly the reason why Trump won the election, and Brexit won in the referendum, even if liberal media find it so surprising (to them and them only)?

Main media tends to label anything against the liberal agenda (with those high ideals) as bigots when, in reality, it's not necessarily true.

Most of those Trump supporters, Brexit supporters, and even those against the EU establishment, are not necessarily racists, although nativitists and ultra nationalists would almost certainly find affinity with the same agenda. Ultimately, I do believe that most people are willing to share, but only if their own station is secure. Afterall, that was how European Community (which later became EU) and American agenda on democracy came about, after the end of the bruising wars during WWII. That was the time when US rose to its heights while countries in other regions dug themselves out of the WWII hole. US was riding high, and was willing to share. But no more (for a lot of folks).

And so, when Trump essentially tells EU that people (not just those within EU) don't like EU, or its liberal agenda, or its high ideals, they lash out ruthlessly. None of the EU countries is brave enough to come to say that they don't need or want US (because they do need US as a market, at the very least, plus the military might from US). It's like a toothless tiger telling another beast that how ugly they look when they forget to look themselves in the mirror. They try to contain their criticism to Trump personally, when no one dares to point out that Trump has symbolized a good half of the US constituents and their views. Their ostrich approach would have them believe that, by shouting down Trump, US will wake up to its senses and come to their side again.

As if by proxy, EU is lashing out to UK, rejecting the overture of its PM (Theresa May) to act as bridge between US and EU, as UK generally sees its role as the skilful political middleman that is most advantageously positioned to bridge that gulf. But I have no doubt that EU is going overdrive in its punishing mode when it comes to the Brexit negotiation, once Article 50 is invoked. The question really is, would it change anything in reality? Would punishing UK stop other countries from bolting to the exit from EU? My guess is, for those who can economically withstand the fallout from exiting EU, they will. And UK is going to show those countries that the fallout can really be quite manageable.

In a wider geopolitical perspective, two of the three regions in the world are dominated by strongmen, in US and China, who are hostile to EU. In Europe, while Merkel is in no immediate threat of losing power, she's fighting to keep EU from falling apart when EU is encroached by Putin (Russia) in the East, abandoned in the west (by UK), with allies like Hollonde (France) and Renzi (Italy) losing or have lost power, all while refugees keep flooding in from the south (Middle East). Even newer cohorts in Eastern Europe are showing defiance against the EU reach. While fighting for the survival of EU, Merkel is fighting a losing battle in the refugee crisis into Europe from Middle East. If anything, Merkel is probably in the most unenviable position among all world leaders right now.

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On a personal level, sometimes I'm of two minds. I admire the high ideals, the respect of humanity, the idea of global citizenry, the equalization of fortunes (among richer and poor countries). Yet, I have to admit certain fatigue in it all.

I have friends and coworkers from minority groups from around the world, and we all live and work harmoniously. There was never an issue. Things happen so gradual that one almost never takes notice (as things should be), and rarely do I even feel any need for introspection of how well things have turned out since a very homogeneous and segregated world in the pre-WWII days. It has been a far more egalitarian world these days, thanks to globalization, particularly in the coastal big cities in US.

For those who can and will adapt to a changing world, it's a very good thing, regardless of ethnicity, origin, culture, and not the least, religion. But for those whose livelihood is threatened or destroyed, that kind of change simply would not do. As it happens, Trump is opportunistic enough to grab the megaphone for the latter group, even though he himself is solidly in the former group. Such is the case when very poor voters find affinity in a very rich guy to be their representative. It's a strange world indeed.

And if one looks at the amount of publicity (predominantly negative) of Trump's muslim ban, versus the real/actual impact of the number of people involved, it's so disproportionate that it's almost laughable (except maybe to those who were involved). Afterall 60,000 revoked visa out of 11 million (immigrant and non-immigrant) in total, that's only 0.55%. Naturally one can easily argue that this is a matter of principle, and rightly so. But looking back in history, even a 3-month tourist visa into US used to be something like a godsend to anyone who lived in Asian countries, for example, never mind all those who applied and were rejected, with no reasons given. Once upon a time, visa entry to western countries like US or Europe isn't such a birthright to anyone who wants in. One can then argue why it has become such a given, almost an entitlement, that anyone who wants to come in has to be granted access to come, even if a host country does not desire so or feels the need to throttle it? These days, there is almost a feeling of "wet feet, dry feet" for almost anyone, all in the name of "human rights". Should anyone question the wisdom or even legality of that notion, one is immediately labeled a racist. That argument, to me, can get tiresome; hence, the fatigue.

In any case, Europe will continue to come under siege on all sides, and likely to fragment, albeit not an outright disintegration. Hollande can cry foul all he wants, but he's on his way out, and who knows if Marine Le Pen would become France's own version of Trump, although I won't be surprised if that would really happen, much as Trump has won the election over Hillary Clinton. If France should fall on the wayside, then there really will be no hope of reversing the downward fall of EU, now that UK is out of the picture. All those thumping of chest from the EU elites for now would just be noise.