2019: Taking stock, and looking ahead...

I'm slacking off in upkeeping my journal, even for the year-end review and a look-back at all the momentous events this past year. Mental fatigue of too much news (and noise) will do that to you. But, let's get this done.

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I always read the year-end recap from last year before writing the wrap-up for the year. Quite a lot has happened, but sadly to say, so much remains the same.

On the economic front, it's tumultuous and steady-as-she-goes, all at once. Domestic economic is going strong, even though the agriculture sector is bearing most of the brunt from the Agriculture sector suffers in US trade war with China with China that Trump has stared. Not surprisingly, the rural sector is a hardy bunch and ardent Trump supporters (for the most part), and they seem to have the grit to hold out for longer. It is instead the urban sectors, the liberal folks who worry about the suffering of the farming sector that they advocate against - or at least "caution" - the trade war.

Economists close ranks and all advocate against the trade war. But by and large, most Americans agree that China needs to be checked. China - and Russia too - has become blazen in espionage (including commercial and military), and hyper-aggressive in military manuveauring. Case in point: China aggression in South China Sea out of nothing in international waters, and unilaterally redrawing territorial waters with Nine-Dash Line which cuts into the waters of neighboring countries.

Response from the rest of the world on all these aggression was moot, unfortunately. There was UN complaint, there was Tribunal ruling on China aggression, but that was three years ago, and no one can seem to stop what China is doing. If this had been in the pre-WWII days, it would have been called appeasement. In modern days, as China has risen to become the No.2 in world economy, with its increasing economic clout (both as an increasingly important markets for the world, and as a vital financial backer to infrastructure projects that third world countries have come to rely on, even to their own long term peril), no one dares to speak up. With US being the No.1 economy (for now), US seems to be the only one who can afford to say no to China.

I'm not a fan of Trump. In fact I utterly despise this guy. (No, he's not qualified to be a president at all in every single aspect.) Yet, he has been the only guy who has the unpredictable and volatile temperament to start a trade war with China, and can roil up his GOP base to rally support for it. The timing of it, is prudential (for the Hong Kong protests). God does work in His own mysterious ways.

Personally I do believe that China's aggression urgently needs to be checked. If it means a fucking trade war, if it means lower GDP, so be it.

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Speaking of economic pain and lower GOP, it brings to mind the bruhaha of Brexit. There's so much scary talks since the referendum was passed three years ago. Economists - much like their universal disapproval of the US trade war - uniformly gave their thumbs down. There was talk of armageddon and collapse in economy (it didn't happen). When pocketbook issues did not seem sufficient to scare the Brits shitless, scare turned to border issues of Northern Ireland that maybe The Troubles in Northern Ireland could be reignited (I doubt it would).

There's a lot of talks about how Boris Johnson mirrors Donald Trump, in terms of temperament, melodrama, nativism-leaning). That much is true. Incidentally they were both able to push through an agenda (that half of the country despises) at a time when they both shoveled a female peer aside: Trump defeated Hillary Clinton (even though she's way more qualified than he is), Johnson sidelined Theresa May. More interestingly, Johnson called the snap election (in the hope to secure a mandate from the people to push Brexit through, even if it's a no-deal Brexit) and won by a landslide. Not so long ago, May took the exact same steps, and she lost miserably. The deal - if you can call it that - that Johnson advocates is essentially the same (if not worse) as May's. So, what's the difference between Johnson and May? Well, for one, May was trying to please everyone and ended up pleasing no one. Johnson? He roiled up his core base, and there's that.

As to Brexit, I really don't see what's the big fucking deal with this, and why so many people sound so scared about it. Yes, there'll be less trade between UK and EU, GDP will be lower, but UK will live. I'll bet in the end, deal or no deal, UK will likely adopt most of the trade rules so that commerce will flow again. What UK will gain back, is its sovereignty, and its ability to call the shot again about its own border. Is that such a bad thing to be able to control one's own border and immigration policy? I would say, no. The UK politicians all want to retain their seats at the decision-making table at Brussels, even if that means UK has to contribute billions of funding to EU every year. It's plain to see that UK voters believe that's a bad deal. I don't disagree at all.

The moment of truth will come soon, in 2020.

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Speaking of politics, there is the impeachment of Trump which is only the third time in history. Trump must have been doing his victory lap when the Mueller Investigation did not amount to a conviction, so much so that Trump became so emboldened that he literally asked Ukraine to investigate his political opponent in exchange for military aid that Congress had already approved for Ukraine. What the hell was Trump (and his peeon like Guiliani) thinking, really? Every extra day that Trump sits in the White House, it's another day that he makes a mockery of the rule of law and US constitution duty that a president swears to uphold. Worse still, the whole GOP establishment would still stand behind this despicable guy, even defending (!!) him on the most indefensible offense, it's totally unacceptable.

Although I've had initially misgiving about impeaching Trump as the 2020 election is drawing closer, I've come to realize that the impeachment means something more. Yes, the best way to beat Trump is at the ballot box, but given the mounting evidence from the Ukraine scandal, we can no longer let it slide, as if such conduct (of the White House occupant, the fucking commander-in-chief) is acceptable. It is no longer just about defeating Trump, it's about defining what is acceptable - and NOT acceptable - conducts for a US president. This, is something that needs to be laid down, as the rule of law, and the US constitution, demands of us (both Congress and voters). We can no longer look away. So, I have to agree with Nancy Pelosi, in this regard.

Listening to the full impeachment hearings in the House, I was totally disgusted by how ignorant, naive, and clueless the GOP have been, who couldn't seem to hold an intelligent argument. What's wrong with these fucking idiots?!?

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As the campaigning of the Democrats primaries kicks into high gear, I was getting somewhat battle fatigue. As the news reporting progresses, it's quite clear that main media (and social media too) is going to get it wrong (AGAIN) about this election (much as it was wrong about projecting landslide victory by Hillary Clinton (HRC), yet she lost the 2016 election to Trump anyways).

Joe Biden continues to lead every single polls in the match-up against Trump, yet all I can see is "bad news" about Biden, about how he's too old, too timid, too same-old-same-old, too "obama". Going moderate, taking incremental approach, has suddenly had a bad name. Why? Because HRC didn't give a flying fuck about bread-and-butter issues of the working class in 2016, thereby giving up (and giving away) all the swing states, even the erstwhile solid blue states. Dems have come to take it for granted that unions (and working class) will always vote Dem, but that's no longer true. Perhaps the only challenge I would like Biden to confront is: What would he do about trade liberation? Will he continue trade war with China? (I hope he does.) What would he do about the economic misfortune for those who don't have the skills to pivot to the new knowledge-society (apart from giving out more and more welfare)? With all that said, Biden is still the only who has consistently sat at the top of all polls (except the couple of early primaries which, to be honest, don't mean much after their primaries are over). If Dems really believes that the number-one task, is to take down Trump, who else could it be, but Biden?

And then there are those on the far-left, in the form of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren). Honestly, I can't stand Bernie Sanders, but at least he's "consistent" in his stance all these years. Warren? She might have "evolved," but seeing her as the people's warrior when she used to defend big corporate clients, once upon a time, it seems hypocritical for her to criticize Pete Buttigieg's fundraising activities (which is no different from what Warren used to do). As the saying goes, don't cast the first stone. It is thus that I'm not surprised to see her star declines after the sixth Dem debate. It's about time.

The two other younger candidates that I watch are, Pete Buttigieg, and Andrew Yang. Buttigieg is an interesting case. On papers, he's probably the dream candidate that Dem should have clammered for. He's young (37), a military veteran, religious and/but gay, smart (Rhodes scholar), comes from rural area (mayor of a small town in IN), and older voters love him (since he speaks respectfully and he carries his arguments well). What is puzzling, is young voters don't like him (they still like Sanders, the oldest candidate in the Dem lineup), and black voters don't like him (they still prefer Biden). Can he overcome these two major voters bloc, to become candidate? It's a major gamble.

And then there is Andrew Yang, the odd ball. America might not be ready for an Asian-American president, but the more I watch him speak and look at his policy agenda, the more I like him. Apparently I'm not alone. His star, surprisingly, is also rising. He doesn't talk like a politician, he doesn't speak like a politician. More importantly, if anyone should need truly fresh ideas, Yang is the one who comes up with the beef. No wonder his Yang Gang hard-core following is growing in size.

As to everyone else (we still have, what, 25 in the Dems lineup?!?), it's all just a joke. I really don't know why they're still in the race. They should just all pack up and go home. (Especially Tulsi Gobbard, Julian Castro, and Cory Booker.)

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Perhaps the most momentous event that touches me the most in this past year, is the protests in Hong Kong that started in June. The initial demand to withdraw the Extradition Bill has since morphed into much bigger issues, exposing fault lines and weakness in the so-called One-Country-Two-Systems (1C2S) model that was decided for Hong Kong by Britain in the 1980s, that was meant to "guarantee" no change in the systems (if you can believe that) in Hong Kong for 50 years, after which China can do whatever it wants with Hong Kong.

Anyone who cares to read those words, would realize that it was never meant to work. China resumes sovereignty of Hong Kong in 1997, and can really do whatever it wants with it. In the three decades since the signing of the Sino-British agreement in 1982, the economic fortune and significance of Hong Kong has waned significantly, accounting for 18%+ of China's GDP back then to only 2% today. Everything that Hong Kong has now is inextricably tied to China, beholden its economy to the China trade and tourists to prop itself up, on top of the water and food supply.

Hongkongers have always been an apolitical, pragmatic bunch. Everything has always been about pocketbook. The younger generations in Hong Kong thus take everyone by surprise. They reject the military threat from China, they go on million-man march on the street to demand democracy (universal suffrage) and independent investigation on police brutality against young protesters, they even persist in protests that have resulted in violent confrontations without backing down. And, they make full use of the social media, and organize with clear leaders (so that government cannot easily pin down and crack down on a few leaders, as police did in the 2014 Umbrella Movement). In fact, their guerrilla tactics have been so successful that the government and police are still unable to put a stop to the protests, amidst arresting thousands of protesters (some as young as 12 years old).

I have to say, I admire and respect the Hongkongers and its protests. In fact, this should have happened back in 1982 when China and UK were in secret talks to decide on the future of Hong Kong. That generation, unfortunately, never did anything. They co-op'ed out the future of their birthplace, buying themselves time (50 years and no more) to jump ship and migrate to other countries. In a few words, they didn't care. And that mess is now the reality for this generation. I thus fully support the young protesters and their demands. Yet, so many of those older generations sound disapprobation against the protests since the protests "inconvenience" them, and their comfortable retirement. Such attitude is selfish and despicable.

I joined a number of peaceful march in Hong Kong this past year while I was there. I see it with my own eyes, I feel it in the air. These people are peaceful, they only want to upkeep their civic establishments, the impartiality of judicial system. Unfortunately, Carrie Lam (the current chief executive who is nothing more than a kiss-arse to whoever is in power in Beijing) has neither the wisdom nor the skills to govern, instead she makes use of the brunt force of military tactics against unarmed protesters. Is there any wonders why protesters have to up the ante in order to maintain the momentum? If anything, Carrie Lam is going to go down in history book as the traitor to give away the future of Hong Kong.

The 1C2S has always been just a gimmick, a carrot/bone thrown in Taiwan's way as a "viable" option for peaceful unification into the arms of China. With the weakness of 1C2S fully exposed now, it's no wonder that Taiwan is saying thanks, but no thanks. I would have done the same, if I were Taiwan. Afterall, Taiwan already has democracy, it already has everything that an independent country has (except maybe not the full diplomatic ties to countries that bent backwards for China due to China's economic incentives/threats), why would anyone give those up?

What China is good at, is pretty (and empty) words. They talk beautifully, they have "laws" (but they have kangaroo courts), they have "rule of law" (but "law" is whatever Beijing says it is), making a mockery of those three words. If anyone should still harbor the fancy that Beijing would play nice and treat Hong Kong fairly, they are just delusional. Case in point: Look at how China treats those muslims in Xinjiang. It's a daily threat that's going to come to Hong Kong.

I was happy when Congress passed the Bill to support Hong Kong (or at least put a check on China's actions on Hong Kong) with overwhelming support, so much so that even Trump - who is capable of only seeing everything in transactional nature and is clearly worried about further antagonizing China in the trade war negotiations - has to sign it since the Bill is veto-proof. Again, God works in His own mysterious way.

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On a more personal front, I've had some minor health scare. As people always say, it's always those life-and-death moments that are most effective in prompting us to evaluate our life choices. For me, it is perhaps really high time that I should consider slowing down and take an easier (and slower) path in life.

This is particularly so as I'm joining the ranks of empty-nesters. I'm still very hopeful in life, looking forward to the kids making a better path in life than I do. There is however storm clouds on the horizon. Income equality in society across the globe is worsening, job prospects (in the face of big tech and onslaught of AI, big data, and robotics) can look uncertain, and climate change (even if it's further out in the horizon) is getting real. I can only hope that my generations are not leaving a world to the younger generations that is worse off than when I inherit it. This is also the same reasons why I support the young protesters in Hong Kong, precisely because they are fighting for a better future, how could anyone not support that??