Friday, December 31, 2021

2021: Taking stock, and looking ahead...

2021: Another eventful year...that I've tuned out.

Where to begin...

Covid

It's year-two of Covid-19. Infection caseload and death tolls rose and fell with second-wave, third-wave etc until media seems to stop numbering it, and simply refer it as "another surge" which might as well. Evolved through 2020, covid the virus has mutated like a petulant child, giving us the Delta variant, and then the Omicron variant. 

When Omicron variant starts showing up in South Africa, and countries (including US) impose travel Ban from South Africa, no one bats an eyelid or complains about it. Yes, that's the right thing to do and it has to be done. There is nothing "racist" about it. When covid the virus speaks, you listen and act. In that sense, it's a good thing. Remember in early 2020 when Trump first imposed the travel ban, and China complained that the act was "racist?" Well, according to the CCP logic, China is the most racist of them all, imposing border closure and travel ban whenever it gets the whiff of covid cases. 

It's also a miracle that two highly effective mRNA vaccines (Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna) are widely available now for anyone who wants it (well, at least in developed countries). There is even an oral pill for covid. What more can mere mortals wish for in a miracle?

And yet, that's not enough for religious-right groups. Nay, that's decidedly not the miracle of their choosing. They want their rights (hence no mandate will suffix), freedom, and they want their money (from government) even if they reject economic relief bills. I have to say, the amount of self-loathing and hypocrisy of these people is really quite astounding. After some two years of covid, after more than 1.8m people have died from it, after effective vaccines are now available, after enough government support to families are given, I've really had enough of any more whining and complaints, not just from the religious-conservative-right but from the far-left-progressive-left. I'd say, if your employer mandates vaccine and you refuse it then you can choose to work somewhere else; if you refuse the vaccine and get sick with it then you are absolutely free to die from it too. No one is stopping them. In fact, I think they should just...DIE.  The world population is exploding so much that it's not a bad thing to have one less petulant mouth to feed. It might sound harsh, but it's absolutely true.

I have stopped discussing about anything covid within family circles as well. The discussion/argument is really pointless. If after some two years and mountain of scientific data, and they still can't be convinced or make up their minds, then I don't think they ever will.

To each their own. I rest my case.

Politics

With the clear majority win by Biden in the 2020 election, one would have thought the matter is settled. Given a sore loser like Trump, things are never settled...not in his mind anyways.

So, instead of quietly retreating to his ever-shrinking rabbit hole in Florida, he schemes and plots to stay in power, even to the extent of inciting the Jan 6th Insurrection on Capitol Hill. The images of armed militia storming Capitol Hill - the pinnacle of US government and power - were both jarring and scary. If this had been in some third-world country like Somalia, no one would give a rat. But this is US of A. How could it ever be allowed to happen?

The Congress inquest in the aftermath has since exposed much of its cumulation. A multitude of GOP lawmakers were actively working with Trump circles, in cahoots with private militia groups, to coordinating and plotting to force the government's hands, even threatening Mike Pence (Trump's own VP) to stop the certifying of the election result. Thankfully there were still a few men left in the GOP ranks who have the half decency left in their bones to not comply with Trump's threat. 

Meantime, lawsuits after lawsuits, each of them more frivolous than the last, from Trump's cronies keep coming, even if all of them got shut down by layers upon layers in the judiciary, all the way to the SCOTUS. From my vantage point, at this point, the only thing that will shut them down, is for them to just DIE as a result of covid. That's the process of natural selection at work. Yet, hypocrites like Trump won't be one of those. He might push falsehood, misinformation, and disinformation, but he'll be the first in line to take the goddamn vaccine. He might incite others to storm Capitol Hill and refuse the vaccine/face masks, but you'll never catch him doing any dirty work. Guys like Trump, are too much a coward to do any deeds. (Remember Dick Cheney who was so trigger-happy to send military troops to start a war? Well, he - much like George W Bush - was another coward who dodged military draft back in the days. GOP should be renamed as COP with a big C for Cowards.)

Yet, more than 40% of US voters (those GOP blowhards) are still solidly behind a con-job like Trump. THIS is the saddest part of the story. Trump is but a symptom of the malaise that these group of voters exhibit. It is thus that I have stopped reading any (and all) stories about Trump. Social media is mostly just junk and mindless videos. Why bother reading such a loser when the most business success that he's ever had, is to declare bankruptcy so that he could get out of debt that he owes? 

China and CCP

The annexation of Hong Kong by CCP is complete. In just two years, CCP has managed to wipe away all that Hong Kong was famous for: Its freedom. Its civil servants and police force used to be highly regarded. No more. As it turns out, they are all just a bunch of kiss-arse and boot-lickers.

It's incredibly ironic to see CCP twist the term Rule of Law. Now that CCP is in charge, it's free to dictate what is in the law, it's free to decide who sits in the legislature that mouth absolute support to only CCP's agenda, and it has free rein on enforcing only the laws that suits its purpose. In fact, CCP only needs one law, which is National Security Law (NSL). All the tear-down is done in the name of NSL. Independent mass media, journalists, and anyone who dares to paint even the slightest hint of bad light on China, they get shut down, arrested and thrown to jail, all for the crime of violating NSL. You would wonder what a 12-year-old student mouthing a four-letter support of Hong Kong (in general) could do in violation of NSL and gets arrested and jailed. The ultimate crime is, the child is not brain-washed enough. There is absolutely no logic or sense in that. BUT, that's exactly how CCP wants it. CCP can do whatever it wants, however way it wants it, and no one can say a fucking word about it. 

The West might mouth some weakly-worded rebuttal, but ultimately they still want to do business with China, and CCP knows it. THIS is their secret weapon. This is also why for whatever outrage that CCP did in South China Sea, no one is doing a damn thing about it. Now that Xi Jinping has secured the office for life for himself, he can simply bid his time, wait for a more "friendly" (or easily bent) politicians in each Western government and even in Taiwan, and then Xi will pick them off, one by one. In short, he's playing the long game, and sadly he seems to be having the upper hand.

Hong Kong seems like a lost cause now. Xinjiang is not even on anyone's radar in any meaningful way. Taiwan is the next frontier. Now that CCP knows that it can no longer use the façade of One-Country-Two-System to bait Taiwan to bent its knees, I wouldn't be surprised if CCP would stage a surprise flash military attack on Taiwan. No country (not even US) has the appetite to start a ground war with China, and CCP will secure this juicy pork of Taiwan (particularly with its chip design and production that China needs sorely).

I really pray for Taiwan.

Australia learns its lesson the hard way, allowing its economy to become so dependent on the China trade that it suffers the hard blow when China punishes it for stepping out of line by criticizing China on covid. This is one silver lining of covid, in showing the world how the interdependence of world supply chain, and the over-reliance on China (both as a market and as a supplier), can be a perilous path to continue.

So far, Biden seems to have learnt the lesson, and kept up the pressure on China (and not rolling back the tariff on Chinese imports). Biden is actually recruiting allies, beefing up Five Eyes, and Quads, as a containment strategy to check the CCP aggression. But, China is no longer the weakling of old, it's buying it minions in so many other weak nations in the world (in Africa, Middle East, South America, and Eastern Europe, while teaming up with Russia). The one silver lining from the awful Trump presidency, is his stance against China that garners support across the board, even the US farmers who bare the brunt in the reduced exports to China. 

The question now, does Biden have the backbone to stand firm and stand tall for long? I'm not so sure.

Covid Economy

There is so much absurdity in this covid economy, I don't know where to begin. There is absolutely no logic to support the meme stock trading (like GameStop, AMC) that has no basis in reality or fundamentals. It's all just a tulip mania waiting to pop. Much like the stupid GOP blowhards (who buy in to the Trump horseshit about election fraud and vaccine fake news), these meme stocks pushers are mostly young men with a lot of free cash suddenly pushed on them by the federal stimulus checks, but with not much of a brain, courtesy to Biden's covid relief bill. 

Same goes with the sudden rise (that will surely fall at some point) with most SPAC listings. 

This year has also seen the cryptocoins seemingly going "mainstream." Or, has it? There is still no true purpose of most BS cryptocoins like Dogecoins. Just because some stupid money is pumping (who likely dumping once you jump in) doesn't make it a "viable investment." Much like those who choose to rather die than to take an effective vaccine to guard against covid, they will die and the world won't miss a beat. For those who lose their shirts in cryptos and SPAC and meme stocks, no one will shed a tear for them in the end.

NFT though, is a different matter. It does serve a purpose to allow a meaningful for owners of intellectual properties to sell that ownership using NFT, although whether it really "means" something, it's entirely up to your interpretation. Just because you can prove ownership of something abstract or ephemeral, that doesn't change the nature of the underlying collateral, even if you are the proven "owner" of it. Who cares if you are the owner of some sand castle, proven with NFT, when the sand castle is already washed away by the water? 

On a macro level, I'm getting so tired of the back-and-forth about the Build Back Better Bill that Biden tries to ramp through, cheering on by the far-lefts. While I understand the more noble goals to act on climate change and address inequity, Joe Manchin is right to challenge the price tag. Democrats are used to complain about GOP being the one-trick-pony of tax cuts and more tax cuts, they themselves are locked in this myopic view that the only way to fix inequity is to give people social welfare, and more social welfare. It's not uncommon to hear Dems complaining about GOP diehards who are recipients of Dems' largesse acting against their own best interest by rejecting Dems. There is some truth in that, with Exhibit A being Manchin (himself coming from WV that is one of the poorest states in US, yet rejecting the BBB Bill). What Dems liberals (mostly progressives from urban enclaves like AOC) fail to recognize, is the mentality of their rural folks who might be poor, but they don't want just handouts. What they want, is good jobs. If Dems can't deliver that, then no amount of free cash is going to help buy their votes.

Thankfully, the Infrastructure Bill was split out and passed by Congress with flying colors. Everyone agrees that infrastructures in US desperately need upgrades. It's a good thing that Manchin was able to get this Bill separated out from the chafe of the BBB Bill. I do have confidence that Pete Buttigieg will see it through.

Speaking of Buttigieg, it reminds of the rather useless Kamala Harris. She is the Exhibit A of a pseudo affirmative-action candidate who got picked (as VP) to fill the checkbox of, yep she's (half) black, yep she's a woman, yep she's minority racial group. She "looks good on paper," but one year on, she has achieved nothing. When she's given a portfolio (eg. border migrant crisis) that seems too intractable to be resolved with news headlines for her to gloat about, she runs from it. When she gets less news headlines than cabinet members (as Buttigieg gets nods from both sides of the aisles for building consensus for the Infrastructure Bill), she instead goes to state and talks about infrastructure too (which isn't her portfolio). And then she turns around and complains that White House doesn't have her back and defend her when she does stupid or useless things or has negative reports (like staff exodus from her own team). All I hear, is a whiny baby. And Dems keep giving her a pass, for being a woman, or a black, or a trailblazer. In short, affirmative action will get you in the door, but it will only get you so far, and affirmative action doesn't guarantee you success or same outcome if you can't perform.

As to the migrant border crisis, the immediate rollback of the Stay-In-Mexico policy by Biden was one of the stupidest things he could have done. Trump has done the dirty groundwork for him and Biden should have utilized it (much like the tough stance against China which Biden lets stay). By rolling it back and now trying to reinstate it, Mexico is no longer compliant. This is the kind of stupid back-and-forths by Biden, pushed by the far-lefts, that irks me endlessly. Biden tries to be the Mr. Nice Guy, but an effective leader requires far more just "being nice."

The way it's going, Nancy Pelosi will lose the 2022 Midterms, and if Harris runs in 2024, Dems will lose White House too. (Yes, GOP has been laying the groundwork of enough negative press coverage for Harris, but it's Harris who walks straight into it.) I'm quite certain of it.

On a Personal Note...

Now I know how being an empty-nester feels like. Even my mentality is shifting. I no longer feels the urgent need to get to work. Maybe I'm gearing up for retirement. Curiously I don't feel the keen interest to travel to new places anymore. The border closures by various countries due to covid might feel more constricting at times, but there is no real hardship on me. 

I've even cut down my workload and find more interests in home-cooking. Even grocery shopping brings me renewed vigor.

Covid also brings sharper focus on the need on estate planning and taxes. I was rather angry when I realize that I had to pay so much taxes for 2020. (Yes, the drastic cut in SALT has a lot to do with it too.) While I was hard at work, the news kept bombarding me with all the free cash and federal stimulus payments that Washington is sending to seemingly EVERYONE. I keep asking myself why I'm working so hard paying so much taxes, seemingly treading water in-situ, while all the taxes go to fund others in chasing stupid things like meme stocks and SPAC. This is all while inflation is shooting up - way up - a rarity in more than 30 years. The long term prognosis for USD and trajectory of the national budget deficit are decidedly not good. If all the free-money handouts are made permanent by the BBB Act, the future generations will be left holding the bag to pay for all these.

And while I understand the initial hardship of low-waged workers during early days of covid when no vaccine was available yet, that is no longer true anymore. So, now if I hear one more person mouthing the word "I Am Scared Of Covid," yet refusing to take the vaccine, refusing to go to work, and INSISTING the government continue paying them free cash because "I Am Poor." Sorry, but that just doesn't cut it anymore. THAT is not an argument for "being poor," but rather, it's an excuse for "being lazy." I don't want my hard-earned tax dollars to fund lazy people doing nothing, or to stupid people doing stupid things. The use of Covid as a trojan horse to ramp through the dramatic expansion of a welfare state is getting increasingly tiresome.

With the interest rate at such record low, I'd be a fool not to refinance the mortgages. I've come to realize that the reduced interests I've saved, plus the reduced taxes (due to my cutting down on workload) actually amounts to more than half of my reduced income.  All told, I'm not much worse off by working less (and less stress), and paying less taxes. Factoring in the likely possibility that Dems far-lefts like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and AOC could successfully push for higher taxes, which would mean I'd be paying even more taxes for keeping the high workload, it in effect doesn't pay to work at all. And so, when politicians and media talking-heads puzzle over about the Great Resignation trend, I am the Exhibit A that they should be looking at.

The lesson learnt is, the country could have squeezed productivity out of me (as a taxpayer), but I choose to work less because I don't want to pay that much taxes anymore (to fund someone else's lifestyle choice). This is decidedly not a good outcome for the country as a whole. If there is something that the Democrats should learn from their BBB Bill push, this is one taxpayer (one who is liberal-learning socially but conservative-leaning economically) telling the Dems, they'll very likely lose my vote in 2022 and 2024.