On remembering 9/11, Lehman Brothers, and 2008...

It's time for reflection, 17 years ago this day when 09/11 happened, and 10 years ago when the collapse of Lehman Brothers brought about the subprime crisis, global meltdown, and the Great Recession. So much has changed since then, it's hard not to look back without sounding too wistful.

Remembering 9/11

My office wasn't in downtown when 9/11 happened. It was a normal day. And then some colleagues called out to the rest of us to go to the conference room where there was a big-screen TV. We marched in leisurely, chitchatting, without knowing what the purpose of the meeting was, mistakenly thinking it might just be some impromptu management all-hands meeting. It wasn't. We went in the room, TV was already on. One of the two World Trade Center towers was already billowing black smoke. No one provided any context for what this was all about. I still recalled quite vividly how surreal that picture was, a smoking tower against a perfectly blue sky, with nary a cloud in sight. 

And then someone said, it might have been hit by a plane. We could only surmise that this was an accident. Terrorist attacks were quite low on the radar - well, on our radar - that no one even thought of that possibility. There wasn't much details from the news. Perfect visage notwithstanding, it got old after staring at the screen for 10-15 minutes. We all thought, Oh what a horrible accident, and we went back to our desks. Afterall we still had a job to do, and work beckoned. What was on TV felt like a very boring Hollywood movie.

Later that day, folks were calling out for others to go back to the conference room. There, on the TV, the second tower was smoking too, and the first tower was really smoking badly. By then, there were news that this might not have been accidents. FAA had grounded all flights. The country seemed to be in total panic mode. But real-world news didn't happen that fast, not in the pre-Twitter world anyways. We stayed for a bit longer, maybe 30 minutes this time. We went back to our desks once more, feeling more apprehended and helpless this time.

It wasn't until a day or two later when the real impacts were out, with confirmed reports of terrorist attacks, George W Bush went into hiding, all flights grounded, World Trade Center had collapsed, Pentagon plane attack was detailed, with yet another plane went down presumably stopping another attack, that it hit home. We went to the conference room quite often in those succeeding days. It was one of the news report on what happened on the surrounding grounds of World Trade Center, of people covering in ash after the towers collapsed, and footage of people (tiny dots on screen, but real people) jumping from the towers trying to escape, that I couldn't stop my tears that came spontaneously. What could that have been like, to be high up on the towers, to be on the ground, all rendered totally helpless. Who could have done these horrific acts?

The country responded with full force. In the years that follow, George W Bush started two wars - one presumably necessary, another one totally unnecessary. The weight of law enforcement, and hunt for terrorists, intensified. There were some feel-good stories. But, by and large, it's all like fighting ghosts, shape shifting, moving goalposts, and no measurable benchmarks to call it a success (or failure). The joke was really on us, when George W Bush declared it with a big banner, Mission Accomplished. How ironic.

The two wars (in Afghanistan and Iraq) have since brought on more angst against Americans, rendering perfect propaganda for terrorist recruitment. Various splinter groups like AQAP, ISIS have risen up to take the place of Taliban. While some of those responsible for 9/11 (notably, Osama bin Laden) had come to pass, the outlook going forward looks grim. Afterall, bin Laden was not Hitler, the stateless terrorist groups don't fight conventional wars. Their wars are far more dirtier. It's hard to identify good guys from bad guys, when so many of them simply don't have allegiance except to their own clans. How do you win a "war" like this?

Worse yet, additional American meddling (or tacit encouragement from idealists like Obama) have spawned off even more unrest in that godforsaken region in the Middle East. There was Arab Spring, there was uprising in Yemen, and then there was war in Syria. With so many clans fighting against each other, with no aim except the end-goal of taking larger share from an existing pie, it's nothing but a hornets nest.

I've come to realize a few things. The more that Americans try to do, however good-intentioned, the more that other countries are going to label USA as the neo-colonial power. There was much wisdom in the surgical strike that Bush Senior did in the First Gulf War, but George W was far from the wisdom of his father. He idiotically followed the lead of the neo-cons like Cheney and Rumsfeld, marching the country into multiple war fronts with no clear goals or plans. It's a gigantic mistaken. What we should have done is to let them be, it's not our country, it's not our fight, Americans shouldn't even have taken side with autocrats like the House of Saud. (I do give credits to the Kurds who have been the last-men-standing in so many worthy fights, including those against ISIS, Taliban, and Syrian government army. Nobody, not the Americans, not even the Russians, has the guts to fight the good fight against the Taliban, and then ISIS.)

As to the refugee crisis, that's a different story for another day...

Remembering Lehman

9/11 feels like a long time ago. In the succeeding years, the US economy went up crazily, then crashed spectacularly, and came back in full force now.

Unlike the terrorist attacks, the financial crisis unleashed by the Lehman collapse hit far closer to home.

No doubt it has impacted on the psyche for many a generations. For those who lost everything (stock portfolios in 2008/09, their mortgage and piece of roof, jobs and livelihood), if they had stayed the course (or had the ability to do so) without doing fire-sale, they would have done well. For those who couldn't (eg. those in retirement already, or those starting out in a depressing job market, or those who lost their jobs and livelihood through no fault of their own), it won't feel so good.

It is thus that I feel for the millennials generation. On top of all these, this is the generation that also sees a ballooning student debt in the trillion-dollar territory. For a generation that did all things asked of them, going to college (even if that means borrowing to the kilt to get a bullshit degree with no marketable skills), what are these young people to do?

No one should profess to have the acumen to time the market. By providence, I was from the generation in the right place at the right time, and was able to stay the course with a decent career, hence scooping up from those who had to do fire-sale. We might not want to admit it, but in those dark days of 2008/09 when all hopes seemed to have lost, one man's gain is indeed another man's loss. I certainly feel that, the more I think of it.

The wealth inequality has worsened, now more than ever. Although it's not a recent phenomenon (since it's started from the go-go days in the 1980s at the height of junk bond), it's become almost a norm. CEO pay has gone through the roof, but no one seems to care much (except the far-left activitsts) anymore. These days, the motto of our society seems to be To Each, His Own. For much the same reason, homelessness is more a nuisance that should be pushed to the next city to handle, as long as it's Out Of Sight, Out Of Mind.

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I alternate between optimist and pessimist. There are days I feel hopeful (particularly since I have kids), there are days when things just don't feel right at all (and the idiotic Trump is not helping). What is most worrisome to me, is not necessarily Trump. He is but a symptom, a product of what the American voters want. I used to be a news junkie and can hear/read news all days, but there are days I want to tune out completely.

Is this voters' fatigue? Is this a "thing"? 

On green envy to other's financial success...

It's only recently that I came across a relatively old news (2016) about a young couple in Toronto (Canada) who became self-professed millionnaire, with their worst sin being their preaching about their methods, resulting in online hate comments. 

While I'm never a fan of self-promoters, I don't generally take too kindly to green envy either.

Being frugal alone is not enough.

For a start, why would this couple even opens themselves up for public scrutiny (thereby, ridicule) that way? Call me old-schooled, but I simply find that distasteful. Not too many folks, age notwithstanding, have the blessing in life to find well-paying jobs right after college. No doubt that they consider themselves smart and wise in being frugal, or to disregard elders' conventional wisdom to toll for a mortgage in an overpriced property market. Those alone are not the major factor in their ability to amass their first $500k to seed their stock/bond portfolio. 

Where's the revenue source?

More importantly, the main reason they have the ability to save, is because both their jobs (in the IT field) still pay relatively well. And because they have the good fortune to have co-op jobs during college already, they are not burdened with students debts. Put it another way, if they were both in minimum-wage jobs, would they have been able to frugal their way to their $1m goal, simply by bootstrapping? I don't think so.

The arguments for/against a pricey mortgage.

According to this couple, one of their "wisdom" is to not bog themselves down by a pricey mortgage in an overpriced property market. The argument sounds almost intuitive, except that it's not. In retrospect, if they have bought a house property back in 2010, what would the property value and capital gains have been like in 2016 or 2018? A lot, I'd say. In the crazy market in Toronto, if it has been in one of the hottest spots, they could easily have doubled the value. In fact, I would even argue that they could probably have made far more than the $500k, had they bought their own piece of roof. In the end, it could all be just a wash.

That said, they did do one thing right, which is that they do not stretch their finance beyond their means to go for a mortgage that they couldn't afford. God forbids, if they lose their jobs (and they both work in the same field), they could instantly lose their ability to pay for the mortgage. Then again, the same is true even if they are renters. All of which goes back to the earlier point about the more important factor of having the revenue source. 

How far can $1m last?

And then there is this assertion that when one gets to the $1m mark, it's safe enough for one to consider (early) retirement. As conventional wisdom goes, all they have to do, is to care-take the portfolio to ensure the yield exceeds their expenses. But, would that always be possible? I highly doubt that.

Bear in mind too that this couple is still young. They are in early 30s, and don't even have kids yet. Should they consider starting a family and having kids, that changes the equation completely. Kids need good schooling (private school is pricey, and moving into nice neighborhood for good public schools by either buying or renting isn't cheap either). God help them, they'd better pray for good health and healthy genes. Maybe that's not a big worry in Canada, but if they were in US and have no healthcare coverage, one medical emergency could be more than sufficient to blow their $500k portfolio out of the window.

Living large, or just being lazy?

I have decided long time ago that I cannot quite foresee myself to truly retire. I like work, I like the daily rhythm and being productive. Certain level of stress (and the adrenaline that comes with it) can actually be fun. Traveling is great, but that's not a vocation to me. Let's say, in 10 years' time when this couple trod around the world a few times over, what would they be doing then? Going back into their field (IT) after checking-out for years would likely not be an option, and even if they do, would they be willing to toll a developer job when all of their peers have moved up the ladder while they go back to competing with other 20-somethings? It's highly doubtful. To me, retirement cannot be simply about the leisure pursuit. 

What of the green envy?

Surely this couple loves the attention, their 15-minute of fame, being self-promoters as they are (even if they deny it), but do they warrant such hateful vitriol? Perhaps they are more clueless than they refuse to see themselves to be. By fashioning themselves as self-help guru and promoting the "We can do it; you can do it too (you've GOT to be!)" motto, it has the unspoken undertone of rubbing it in, adding salt to injury to those who could never be able to make it, however frugal they might be. The question of get-a-mortgage-or-rent is not even on the table since a lot of people simply cannot afford the option to buy (even if they want it). To hear them saying, we can buy but we won't because it's smarter to rent, and see how smart we are and how much money we've made as a result! To me, it's just bad form, hence I can fully understand why they are thrashed online, even if it's not called for. Ultimately if you put yourself out there, with all good intentions, you are inviting others to pass judgment on you, and oft for very good reasons.

To each, his own.

I would never profess to tell others what the best or smartest way is to live one's life. I would not even try to make it sound like how smart I might be than the next guy. Everyone's circumstances are different. While each of us has agency, a lot of things in life are still at the mercy of chance. There are plenty of people who are sensible, do all the right things in life, and still can't make ends meet. This couple's message to those people is simply that, if they can't make it, they must be losers, or doing something wrong. And that is uncalled for. 

Some things in life should stay private, and finances is one of those. Just because it's easier these days to self-publish and cheaper to do self-promotion on channels like youtube, it doesn't mean we should. I can only hope that self-promoters like this couple, and all those preaching FIRE, would just shut he hell up. If they need public ridicule to get that message (to shut their trap), it might as well.

On hot summer...and starting of school...

This summer is hot, hot and humid. I've been trying to avoid having A/C at home due to its environmental impacts. On most days, even in summer time, it's fine with a fan. There are days though, when temperature is well into high 90s and humidity is over 85%, it can get so muggy and at times hard to breathe. Perhaps I'm getting older too, thus feeling the heat a bit more intensely.

Thank good summer is almost over. Sometimes it's good to have four distinct seasons, so that when it gets too hot, I can long for cooler, even cold air. But when winter gets too harsh and my feet feel cold, no matter how high I turn the heat up, I dream of warm summer days. The silver lining is, at least there's something I can look forward to.

I must be getting a bit wistful. End of summer, with the forthcoming Labor Day, then start of school, always means some kind of rush. Getting school supplies, kids needing need clothing, maybe squeezing in one or two activities before school actual starts. Those rituals are fading away as the kids get bigger. There are things they can take care of themselves; hence, they don't need parents for it anymore. There are also things that we no longer do, things like family outings of mini-golf or apple picking.

More importantly, my eldest is going to college. How time flies. I still remember quite vividly all those stress and joy before during pregnancy and after he's born. Part of me feels relieved. Alas, the kid won't be forever tethered to us. He can have his own life independently. But part of me is getting nostalgic. I would miss driving him to soccer practice and games. I would not see him at the end of each day to see how he's doing. His room is looking very empty and clean, for a change.

I'm glad I still have work to keep me busy. I cannot fathom how that would have been like for stay-home parents whose lives revolve around the kids, and what they are going to do with their free time on hand once the kids are off to college or out of the door. I wouldn't think that would be a very healthy thing to build one's life around someone else's. No, I wouldn't want a life like that.

Home is getting much more quieter. In another year, our last kid will be off to college too. Then it'll be reeeeally quiet.

I do feel that my mentality toward work has morphed somewhat. No longer am I as ambitious. Maybe I don't feel like I have to prove anything, if only to myself or anyone else. Or that, I feel like I've accomplished all that I could, hence quite content with what I have so far, rather than regret what I might have missed. I don't like doing what-ifs in my head.

What I need now, is a hobby. I've always been so busy at work all these years that I suddenly realize that I've given up so many would-be hobbies and interests. I used to like drawing and am quite good at it too, but I have given up on the more artsy side of me some years ago.

Or, maybe I'll get a dog. I used to have a dog when I was young, but didn't feel like getting one while we were busy childrearing. I'm having more time now, maybe I can finally do it again.

It's probably time for a change. And I don't mean a change of jobs or careers, although that has certainly crossed my mind. Food for thoughts indeed...