Tuesday, September 11, 2018

On remembering 9/11, Lehman Brothers, and 2008...

It's time for reflection, 17 years ago this day when 09/11 happened, and 10 years ago when the collapse of Lehman Brothers brought about the subprime crisis, global meltdown, and the Great Recession. So much has changed since then, it's hard not to look back without sounding too wistful.

Remembering 9/11

My office wasn't in downtown when 9/11 happened. It was a normal day. And then some colleagues called out to the rest of us to go to the conference room where there was a big-screen TV. We marched in leisurely, chitchatting, without knowing what the purpose of the meeting was, mistakenly thinking it might just be some impromptu management all-hands meeting. It wasn't. We went in the room, TV was already on. One of the two World Trade Center towers was already billowing black smoke. No one provided any context for what this was all about. I still recalled quite vividly how surreal that picture was, a smoking tower against a perfectly blue sky, with nary a cloud in sight. 

And then someone said, it might have been hit by a plane. We could only surmise that this was an accident. Terrorist attacks were quite low on the radar - well, on our radar - that no one even thought of that possibility. There wasn't much details from the news. Perfect visage notwithstanding, it got old after staring at the screen for 10-15 minutes. We all thought, Oh what a horrible accident, and we went back to our desks. Afterall we still had a job to do, and work beckoned. What was on TV felt like a very boring Hollywood movie.

Later that day, folks were calling out for others to go back to the conference room. There, on the TV, the second tower was smoking too, and the first tower was really smoking badly. By then, there were news that this might not have been accidents. FAA had grounded all flights. The country seemed to be in total panic mode. But real-world news didn't happen that fast, not in the pre-Twitter world anyways. We stayed for a bit longer, maybe 30 minutes this time. We went back to our desks once more, feeling more apprehended and helpless this time.

It wasn't until a day or two later when the real impacts were out, with confirmed reports of terrorist attacks, George W Bush went into hiding, all flights grounded, World Trade Center had collapsed, Pentagon plane attack was detailed, with yet another plane went down presumably stopping another attack, that it hit home. We went to the conference room quite often in those succeeding days. It was one of the news report on what happened on the surrounding grounds of World Trade Center, of people covering in ash after the towers collapsed, and footage of people (tiny dots on screen, but real people) jumping from the towers trying to escape, that I couldn't stop my tears that came spontaneously. What could that have been like, to be high up on the towers, to be on the ground, all rendered totally helpless. Who could have done these horrific acts?

The country responded with full force. In the years that follow, George W Bush started two wars - one presumably necessary, another one totally unnecessary. The weight of law enforcement, and hunt for terrorists, intensified. There were some feel-good stories. But, by and large, it's all like fighting ghosts, shape shifting, moving goalposts, and no measurable benchmarks to call it a success (or failure). The joke was really on us, when George W Bush declared it with a big banner, Mission Accomplished. How ironic.

The two wars (in Afghanistan and Iraq) have since brought on more angst against Americans, rendering perfect propaganda for terrorist recruitment. Various splinter groups like AQAP, ISIS have risen up to take the place of Taliban. While some of those responsible for 9/11 (notably, Osama bin Laden) had come to pass, the outlook going forward looks grim. Afterall, bin Laden was not Hitler, the stateless terrorist groups don't fight conventional wars. Their wars are far more dirtier. It's hard to identify good guys from bad guys, when so many of them simply don't have allegiance except to their own clans. How do you win a "war" like this?

Worse yet, additional American meddling (or tacit encouragement from idealists like Obama) have spawned off even more unrest in that godforsaken region in the Middle East. There was Arab Spring, there was uprising in Yemen, and then there was war in Syria. With so many clans fighting against each other, with no aim except the end-goal of taking larger share from an existing pie, it's nothing but a hornets nest.

I've come to realize a few things. The more that Americans try to do, however good-intentioned, the more that other countries are going to label USA as the neo-colonial power. There was much wisdom in the surgical strike that Bush Senior did in the First Gulf War, but George W was far from the wisdom of his father. He idiotically followed the lead of the neo-cons like Cheney and Rumsfeld, marching the country into multiple war fronts with no clear goals or plans. It's a gigantic mistaken. What we should have done is to let them be, it's not our country, it's not our fight, Americans shouldn't even have taken side with autocrats like the House of Saud. (I do give credits to the Kurds who have been the last-men-standing in so many worthy fights, including those against ISIS, Taliban, and Syrian government army. Nobody, not the Americans, not even the Russians, has the guts to fight the good fight against the Taliban, and then ISIS.)

As to the refugee crisis, that's a different story for another day...

Remembering Lehman

9/11 feels like a long time ago. In the succeeding years, the US economy went up crazily, then crashed spectacularly, and came back in full force now.

Unlike the terrorist attacks, the financial crisis unleashed by the Lehman collapse hit far closer to home.

No doubt it has impacted on the psyche for many a generations. For those who lost everything (stock portfolios in 2008/09, their mortgage and piece of roof, jobs and livelihood), if they had stayed the course (or had the ability to do so) without doing fire-sale, they would have done well. For those who couldn't (eg. those in retirement already, or those starting out in a depressing job market, or those who lost their jobs and livelihood through no fault of their own), it won't feel so good.

It is thus that I feel for the millennials generation. On top of all these, this is the generation that also sees a ballooning student debt in the trillion-dollar territory. For a generation that did all things asked of them, going to college (even if that means borrowing to the kilt to get a bullshit degree with no marketable skills), what are these young people to do?

No one should profess to have the acumen to time the market. By providence, I was from the generation in the right place at the right time, and was able to stay the course with a decent career, hence scooping up from those who had to do fire-sale. We might not want to admit it, but in those dark days of 2008/09 when all hopes seemed to have lost, one man's gain is indeed another man's loss. I certainly feel that, the more I think of it.

The wealth inequality has worsened, now more than ever. Although it's not a recent phenomenon (since it's started from the go-go days in the 1980s at the height of junk bond), it's become almost a norm. CEO pay has gone through the roof, but no one seems to care much (except the far-left activitsts) anymore. These days, the motto of our society seems to be To Each, His Own. For much the same reason, homelessness is more a nuisance that should be pushed to the next city to handle, as long as it's Out Of Sight, Out Of Mind.

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I alternate between optimist and pessimist. There are days I feel hopeful (particularly since I have kids), there are days when things just don't feel right at all (and the idiotic Trump is not helping). What is most worrisome to me, is not necessarily Trump. He is but a symptom, a product of what the American voters want. I used to be a news junkie and can hear/read news all days, but there are days I want to tune out completely.

Is this voters' fatigue? Is this a "thing"? 

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