It's another interesting year. I always like to read my journal, from my year-end review the year before, and see how much has panned out according to plan, and how much is fluke.
It turns out things are going much as expected, both on the economy, personal lives, and things in general.
Hmm, what has happened this past year of 2010...
On the economy front, the US unemployment rate, though down from the scary 10% in 2009, is still stuck at a high 9.8%. There's much talk of the drag for the permanent long-term unemployed - yes, that's bleak prospect that was once only a fixture in the wealth states in Europe, but looks to be here to stay in US now. That's all the more reason why one should not swagger and boost about how there's new normal, and no one wants the Old Europe.
There's also much talk - ATNA, as in, all talk, no action - in Europe, about what to do with the deteriorating sovereign debts, spreading from Greece, to Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and now worryingly, to Belgium, now even France is in the talks of potential sovereign debt downgrades. I feel bad for them, but then, how would they govern a unified Euro, when they have one hand tied to their back? So, on the one hand, you have Germany who is an incredible disciplined people and who has no problem roaring back from recession. On the other hand, you have the rest of Europe who lives fast and loose on easy credit. There's all carrot, but the ultimate (and only) stick in the game, of allowing sovereign debt default, is guaranteed not to be happening. Then, you'll ask, what is there to stop these loosy-goosy countries from doing that again? Afterall, someone else is guaranteed to bail them out. Honestly, this unified Euro is a losing proposition from the start. But there's no plan for Europe to roll back to the pre-Euro world. There is no Plan B. Such a terrible bind.
For those who still have a job, 2010 doesn't feel so bad. The economy is slowly coming back. People are buying luxury goods again and their prices are roaring back, so you know they're having money to spare/spend again. If...and only if...China doesn't fall flat on its face in 2011, it should still be able to claim the world mantle for another year to be the last man standing in saving the hides of the rest of the developed world. Indeed, if you have a chance to go to China or Hong Kong, you can feel the giddiness in the air. And why not. Luxury shops like Louis Vuitton are crowded with almost 100% mainland Chinese tourists who roll their hand-carry suitcase to buy luxury and beauty care products, then resell in China. If you peek into these shops, you would never ever have imagined that China still has a large rural population that lives on less than a few thousand dollars a year. Hot money from mainland China dramatically pushes up prices all luxury properties in Hong Kong. In China, speculation in property, and increasingly in stock market, has become a popular spectator sport/pass-time for common folks. While all the talks in China are about chastening the West (most notably, US, of course) for fast and loose credits, China is literally doing the exact same thing, with huge stimulus to its local economy. China is in a different bind than Europe, but in a not dissimilar way. For all the noble intention of the central government to control inflation and speculation, and to tamper with social unrest, its main weapon is to prop up the economy. Chinese, much like Singaporeans, are like ants. As long as the society is peaceful and harmonious, they live in peace, with the hopes to prosper in life. The Chinese government cannot and will not allow the economy to go down, or property prices to decline, or stock markets to nose-dive. Much like Europe, there is no Plan B.
I feel sad every time I see an empty storefront when we go out. I've been seeing an increasing number of "For Lease" signs in our neighborhood, and we're supposed to be holding up quite well since the Great Recession took hold in 2008. Unfortunately, deep down, I know they are not going to come back. I'm particularly fond of book stores. But after Barnes & Noble, then Borders, closing the store near us, everyone knows they'll never come back again. You can say, I'm torn between their store closing, and what it means to the environment and green movement. Afterall, while I still treasure having a physical book in my hand - and the smell and feel that come with a book, even my own reading habits have been changing. I don't cherish the prospect of publishers and book stores having to produce stacks of books, then sell them, in order to make enough money to survive. Perhaps, the solution comes with e-readers like Kindle, Nook, and iPad. I have particularly strong feelings about this, because this past week, I've been doing house-cleaning, and there are tons of books (eg. children's books from my kids) that I have to either donate or sell. I never doubt the great impact of a physical children's book for my kids, but I don't like having to chop down all the trees to make these books that are destined to recycle bin. My own private solution to all these? I've stopped buying books for the kids. We spend hours at public library anyways, so I've resorted to making donations to public libraries, and let them buy the books instead, so that they can be shared among general public. It's a win-win.
As I was telling my kids, one such category that is particularly ripe for e-reader is the school textbooks. They are way over-priced. Every year, publishers or authors make slight modifications, put out an updated version, and all students have to throw out the older version to get new ones. It's all so ridiculous and incredibly wasteful. If they have it on e-reader, I would jump onto the bandwagon without second thoughts.
Speaking of textbooks, I'm quite happy that I'm almost done with my masters degree. (One last class to go, and I'm over it.) I don't know if I might do the unthinkable again, and take up a second job in the finance field, on top of my regular job in software, with the side venture in e-commerce, plus a bit of stock trading. I'm glad that my husband and kids are very supportive of that idea. But I'll just have to wait and see what happens in 2011.
Perhaps the not-so-good news this year has been my parents' health, which has been declining. They're in their 80's now afterall, so it's not a surprising development. I can only pray to God that, when my parents' time comes, it'll be peaceful and painless.
Kids are growing up fast too. The other day, I turn around at home, and there I see my son playing ball at home, and my daughter reading a book on the sofa. They look so big to me. They are among the many things that I'm so thankful for in life.
2011 should be looking up still. I just hope that China doesn't suffer hard landing in its economy, and at least there'll still be one leg standing in the three-legged stool of world economy. But I can only hope.
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