Wednesday, May 27, 2015

On the anemic recovery since 2008 downturn, and the new normal...

I'm sure everyone has read quite enough about the anemic economic recovery since the 2008 downturn. I certainly have. My guess though is that most everyone doesn't need to read about it to know it; anyone who knows a wage/salaried job should know it by now.

There have been sporadic economic news about the increasing number of jobs being created, but unlike the past economic or the roaring days in the Bill Clinton years, these jobs are mostly low-wage, service jobs that can hardly support oneself, never mind the dream of moving up the economic ladder, starting a family, and join the "middle class" ranks.

Adding salt to the wound, is the fact that employers are resorting to once-off perks, rather than pay raises, I don't know about other sectors, but in IT, this is particularly true. In fact, I'm surprised that it takes main media and economists this long to figure it out because this trend, much like the outsourcing and offshoring that started in mid/late 1990s, has been going on for more than a decade now. I know it because I live it every year. While my employer has been making gobs of profits (and the senior management ranks have been amongst the highest compensated in the IT sector), a majority of folks have not seen a pay raise for more than 12 years, and counting.

And then there is the increasing wealth gap and income gap among the super-rich and the rest of the people, which looks to be a worldwide trend these days.

The trickle-down economics that GOP has always propositioned never work because for an economy to go roaring, it needs not just the super-rich buying yacht or sports cars or staying in resorts and fancy restaurants, what it really needs is the rest of the economy to have that capability to spend and consume as well. Bill Clinton has right general idea, rising tide lifts all boats.

Before the economy hits its snag, everyone was drunken on the easy money from Greenspan, coupled by the dismantling of regulations (like Glass-Steagall Act) and much weakened enforcement, so much so that even a dog could get any loan. No docs? No problem. Second or even third mortgage? We'll take care of that. Zero down? Why not. With all those, even a day laborer or unemployed could have finagled a mortgage to buy properties, turning the real estate market into a huge casino.

We know how that party ended in 2008 with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Suddenly everyone realized that they couldn't really afford the mortgage. They lost their jobs, their mortgage rate reset after the teaser rate ended, foreclosure ensued, and then it's someone else's fault for giving them a loan, any loan. Suddenly people claim they can't read fineprint, they could not have known or understood the terms, they don't know how to balance checkbooks. They MUST be helped. But this is a story for another day, and I'm not that ready for another sob story of how someone lost their house. What I want to look at, is the way forward.

But with these folks in the lower strata and even the great middle class losing their ability to spend because the easy money is not there anymore, and they are unable to borrow, the economy is unable to pull itself out quite so easily. For the first time ever, when the inflation is tampered by the collapsing oil prices, americans are pocketing the savings rather than spending the few extra hundred dollars. The harsh truth is that, americans have been funding their spending with borrowings. Greenspan was happy to oblige with near-zero interest rate, the chinese buy up gobs of US Treasury so that the interest rate can stay low. When americans continue to buy, the chinese are happy to sell (whatever that their factories can make).

So, where are we right now? Borrowings might be coming back, but only to those with good credit scores (presumably with a decent job and steady income), which excludes the low-income folks. Jobs are coming back, but with such low wages that some have to work 2-3 jobs to stay afloat. Having a college degree is no longer any sure bet, afterall college grads in US are competing with those elsewhere in the world, and college grads in China, India, and Eastern Europe are always ready to work for less. Globalization benefits big corporations but it's decidedly a two-edged sword for those toll their labor for a wage.

I don't need some economist to tell me why our economy is not roaring back because I've known it on gut level already. I don't need some main media talking heads to officiating this as our new normal because this has been with us for 6+ years now. I do feel bad for the younger generations, those who come of age finishing college right when the Great Recession hit, because they have been dealt a very bad hand.

But I'm not Bill Gates or Warren Buffet, with billions of dollars stand ready to change the world through philanthropy. I can only do the best I can on the personal level. To me, the silver lining of the Great Recession is more than golden because I've been able to buy up some choiced properties in great neighborhoods that I could otherwise never have been able to buy. I've saving up too (and I'm never a big spender anyways), so I don't have to worry retirement. In fact, I'm preparing for the day when I can call it quit at my job, and I won't have to worry about monthly income/expenses. Along the way, I'm starting my own business because I no longer have faith in a job - some job that works for someone else to put profit in their pockets.

Life is busy when one has to multi-task but it's better that than idling by. Given this anemic economy and this new normal, I count my blessings everyday.

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