Sunday, November 11, 2018

On the 2018 midterms, bloodbath, ad nauseam...

The much anticipated 2018 midterm elections have come and gone (mostly). Although there are still a few races yet to be called, recounted, yada yada, it's a foregone conclusion that Dems have retaken the House, finally. Along the way though, Dems lost the Senate.

For all the hoopla of Blue Wave, I have yet to see it. Has there been one, Dems would (and should) have taken both the House and the Senate by wide margin. And while there are flips, the toss-up key races were almost evenly taken by either parties, with Dems holding court in their favored races, and GOP largely did the same in their own stronghold. With all campaigning and money going in to races in Florida and Texas and Georgia, for example, the Blue Wave was certainly loud but felt more like a ripple than a wave.

All these point to another wobble of the Dems as it marches toward 2020. Elizabeth Warren (D) garners less votes than Charlie Baker (R), a far less impressive feat even in her own backyard. I'm thus seriously doubtful she could even win much of the rest of nation at all, should she choose to run for the higher office in 2020. What Dems need, is a southerner (as Bill Clinton was) to run. It is thus not surprising at all to see the call for Beto O'Rouke (whose resemblance to Bobby Kennedy in appearance is almost uncanny) to run in 2020.

In the aftermath, the most immediate and consequential event, is the Mueller Investigation (into the Russian connections of the 2016 Trump campaign) of course. Trump wastes no time to wait for the last bit of dust to settle before he fires Jeff Session, one day after the midterm election closed when it's confirmed that Dems has control of the House. Trump knows he needs to act fast, in the attempt to show down Robert Mueller's investigation. With Sessions' refusal to shut it down for him, and the worries that any rash move in the Justice Department might jeopardize the midterms, Trump held back (as far as his OCD/ADHD habit would allow it). But, would that be enough for Trump?

Trump could shut down the Mueller Investigation, but the House could just as easily start other investigations (eg. conflict of interests of his family business; his campaign finance; his sexual misconduct; etc). With the new Acting AG publicly announcing his intentions in the past, it almost certainly mandates his own recusal to overseeing the Mueller Investigation. My suspicion is, this new guy might recuse himself, but he'll find fault to fire the Deputy AG (who has been shielding and protecting the Investigation from being shut down), so that someone more "loyal" to Trump will take over, then officially terminate it.

This is indeed a constitutional crisis for the nation. How could anyone expect letting the fox guarding the hen house when the fox has been taking eggs whenever it likes? How could anyone (that's you, GOP'ers) consider it ok for Trump to terminate an investigation that investigate him? How could Dems consider it ok to let Trump and GOP call the shot like this?

With the House majority firmly in Dems' hands, I fully expect Dems to be more forceful and act less impotently than it had been in the past. There is no more excuses.

Trump has been hiding behind the cloak of the White House, bulldozing everyone to bend over for him. I full expect that day when Trump could no longer hide behind the protection that the US presidency affords him - and that day will come soon enough - he'll find himself all alone in the cold, with no one standing by him. (Afterall he never stands by anyone, with his readiness to throw anyone under the bus to save his own skin.)

No comments: