*Phew* this was close...
Wordle 268 6/6
Russia is keeping at it, and Ukraine is still hanging on, going into Day 18.
There is this excellent analysis by the Russian scholar Stephen Kotlin in The New Yorker unpacking the Russia attack, not just solely on the current event, but on the culmination of Russia's attack from its history, culture and its system that explains the psyche succinctly. More importantly, it perfectly explains the past, present, and likely future behavior of Russia (not just of Putin and potentially for its future leaders).
Essentially Russia has always been an aspiring great power with great ambitions, though its capability is less than able in matching its ambitions. This is certainly true, to the extent that Russia actually has been less of a threat to the world at large than, say, China since the world has become so dependent on China as a market and as a production hub. Russia, on the other hand, only has energy exports that the world really wants. As significant as its energy export might be to EU (which accounts for some 40% of the gas in Germany, for example), and as painful as the short term prospect would be, should EU pivot away from Russia's energy exports, it is by no means irreplaceable.
Foolishly, EU, and to a lesser extent, Joe Biden, have given Putin an upper hand, by drawing the line for self-preservation. By proclaiming outright that EU would not ban Russia's energy supply, and by explicitly saying that NATO and US would want to see any escalation of war (or be drawn into a full-scale war), Russia would use exactly those two points as the bargaining chips. Is there any wonder, even in a weaker position (when compared to a united front of the West) why Putin would be so bold as to threaten the West not to help Ukraine, or else, Russia would cut its energy export to EU and/or use its nuclear weapons on Ukraine? Heck, if I were Putin, I would have done the same as he did, knowing that the enemies are so feeble and timid.
Many a times, Joe Biden has said outright that US doesn't want to escalate the war. But, he's looking at the wrong lens. Putin never needs any "provocation" from the West. Did the West do anything when Russia annexed Crimea and Georgia? No. Did the West do anything to stop Russia then? No. All that Russia has said so far, are just excuses excuses. Ukraine is a sovereign state, Russia has no right to launch attack, just to "prevent" NATO from admitting Ukraine into its club. What kind of a bullshit excuse is that? Yet, US and EU let Putin get away with it, as if this excuse is valid? WTF.
Negotiation with Russia is futile. All those talks with Macron (France) and Bennett (Israel), is simply Russia's roundabout way to tell the world to exert pressure on Ukraine to stand down, all for the "greater good" (financial market disruption, oil supply disruption, refugee crisis). Putin is telling the world that, Look, Tell the Ukrainians to stand down, and we can "avoid the war"...ie. Ukraine can just rollover and die. Heck, if I were Zelenskyy (Ukrainian president) and the Ukrainian people, I would have flatly rejected that so-called negotiations as well. This is utterly ridiculous.
At this point, no one should be trusting any words from Russia or Putin. Same goes with those empty words from China. The two authoritarian regimes would talk the Western talk (as if they abide by international rules, yet they flout any rules as they please), and people like Biden and Macron and EU seem to just eat them all up as if it's golden. UK seems to be the only one who is calling Russia as it is. Actions speak louder than words. Russia has to withdraw its military from Ukraine and retreat. Period.
It's true that Joe Biden is an infinitely better choice than Donald Trump in the White House to answer that 3 a.m. call. Biden's strategy to methodically recruit allies in the past year has paid off in containing China (somewhat), with the Quad, and the Five Eyes. Biden has also worked hard to mend the fences with the world at large since Trump blew up the political connections in his four years in White House. That said, Biden is not a wartime president. His strength and strong belief in diplomacy is also his weakness. Biden thinks he can talk Putin to submission, but that would never work. He also thinks Putin would yield to economic sanctions but I would highly doubt it. The Russians, much like the Chinese, pride themselves of their ability to withstand hardship and pain. The two of them would just hobble together, if the West decides to cut them off.
When you are faced with an authoritarian strongman who only recognizes military strength, no other words would suffix. I don't relish the prospect of a world war, but sometimes that choice is made for you. Don't believe me? Just think of how WWII could have turned out, had it not been for Churchill and Stalin deciding to stand the ground and fight the Nazis. Most every nations in Continental Europe simply rolled over and submitted to Hitler, all to "avoid the war." The way it's going, that's what Biden and EU and Macron and Bennett are advocating. That's just so wrong.
In a way, I can understand Biden's apprehension. Inflation is also at its highest level in 40 years, thanks to Covid and supply chain bottleneck. It's the number one concern of voters, and Democrats are nervous about the Midterm election prospect in Nov 2022. A real war will add to that inflation by reducing oil supply (from Russia) and ground troops deployment will ensnare US into another war, just as Biden has so desperately wrapped up the one at Afghanistan. US voters are notoriously finicky, and while they (and the Congress across the aisle) supply the ban on everything Russia and to provide more support to Ukraine, they likely don't realize the full-scale impact (and the pain as a result) from a deeper US involvement in the Ukraine war. And unlike the Russians and Chinese, US voters are also infamously adverse to pain (economic, or anything physical). The US voters willingness to stick their neck out for Ukraine (and by proxy, EU) will definitely have limits...Biden knows it, and Putin knows it too.
I don't envy Biden's position. Then again, this is what voters elect him to be: A True Leader. Can Biden truly rise up to the occasion, or will be just be a good caretaker, but no vision on what he could aspire the country to be? If Biden can't even stand his ground against the Democrats' infighting with the progressives, what hope is there to see him withstand external threat?
Time and again, I keep playing the what-if in my head. If Pete Buttigieg had been in White House now, he would have reacted far more decidedly. Progressives are just a bunch of noisy woke imbeciles, synonymous to those noisy libertarian imbeciles in GOP who would shrink from the world.
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