On the change afoot in the Mid East...

I'm not normally too tune in to the development in the Middle East. The issues, history and politics are complex and intermingled with religions, cultures and various ethnicity, so much so that their events usually just stay outside of my peripheral vision. Surely, 9/11 has brought their issues and concerns closer to home, but I cannot honestly say that I feel too much for the issues in that part of the world. I can only imagine that most of America feels more or less the same way, even though America is waging two wars over there, namely, in Iraq and Afghanistan. Long story short, most Americans just want to have as little to do with the complexity in that region as possible. Afterall, that's what voters have been asking for, which is to end the wars and bring all soldiers home, no matter what.

But sometimes, when issues can become larger than life that they can force themselves to our face. The regime change in Tunisia due to peaceful, democratic protests recently, forcing out a decades-old dictator, is almost like a breath of fresh air. Afterall, isn't that exactly what America (or more precisely, George W. Bush and the gang) has been hoping and calling for? You can't buy democracy because it has to come from the people collectively.

Malice spreads easily. People see what can be achieved in Tunisia, and words/actions spread quickly to Egypt, leading to unrest (so far, peaceful and persistent). It doesn't take long for an 8-year-old to figure out that the domino there is going to fall.

To preempt the popular unheaval, Jordan rolls a few heads at the top already, perhaps in the hope of heading off public demand for regime change too.

The more interesting and vexing question is, what happens after the regime change. It's particularly worrisome, because it's quite an unknown who will fill the void. Would it be another moderate, West-leaning government, or would it be a fanatic government like the Taliban? Given how disenfranchised the general public has been in the Middle East in general, it's foreseeable that the Muslim fundamentalists would be able to fill that void quickly with angry rhetoric and even fear-inducing bombs that can terrorize the populace to fall in line with their radical agenda, much like what's happening now in Iraq and Afghanistan.

But sometimes, what is right does not mean it's good. Or rather, what's right and good for one country does not mean it's right/good for another, as clearly demonstrated by how agitated and worried Israel has been, since these unrest across the region has broken out. Israel is not a country (or a people) to mince words, as marked by the pointed words and criticism to Obama, the Prez, and Hillary Clinton, the Secretary of State, as naive at best. Even for those who are partisan in the debate, one should know the reality that Israel has pointed out, because in the calling for regime change in Egypt by Obama and Clinton, America is effectively abandoning a long-time ally, albeit a dictator one, who has been among the first to sign and maintain peace treaty with Israel, and who has helped keep the peace and stability in the volatile Middle East. The same goes with Jordan, and no doubt Saudi Arabia is nervously watching.

I'm not sure if Obama and/or Clinton has any illusion of the purpose of US in that region, because Middle East is one big hornet's nest, which takes a few very heavy hands to keep the hornets from coming out and stinging everyone in its path. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying what US has done in the past, in endorsing and supporting all those dictatorships is the right thing to do; but those are necessary things for US, in its best self-interest. Afterall, everyone watches out for only its best interest. If anyone thinks otherwise, that would be just too naive. Even for a casual observer like myself, it's as plain as daylight.

So, what's the next move of Obama/Clinton? Given that they both have legal and lawyerly training, one would hope and expect that when they ask a question, they should know the answer to the question first. But given that there's no clear viable opposition leadership in neither Tunisia, nor Egypt, nor Jordan, to step in the void after a regime change, it doesn't look like Obama/Clinton knows what's going to happen next at all.

And that's the most worrisome development, that no one knows what to expect next. Worst case scenario, some Muslim fundamentalist groups would rise up to the occasion, get the popular vote and/or support from their military. Then we'll be seeing another repeat like Taliban-in-Afghanistan.

Let's hope that it won't happen that way. I'm hoping when I look back on journal today, from some future point in time, and this prediction turns out to be wrong.