Wednesday, January 30, 2008

On Edwards and Giuliani dropping from the presidential race...

It's pretty much expected, that Rudy Giuliani would be dropping from the race. I'm just surprised to see it takes so long. The same goes with John Edwards.

Giuliani has been living/hiding in the after-glow of 9/11 for so darn long. He shifts between Dem and GOP positions. His heavy-handedness rival the Bush administration. He's long on prepared photo op than policy details. His messy personal lives are not going to survive the scrutiny of the religious right. So, he claims to hold out from the early primary/caucus in Iowa and New Hampshire. Failed miserably in South Carolina, and now in Florida which is supposedly his last-stand. Then again, he would have no hope in those states like Iowa and South Carolina. Most New Yorkers who saw him up close are not going to vote for him. I'm not sure why he's so sure of Florida since the senior folks would not have favored him over John McCain. I'd say, it's a good thing for him to drop out now, before New York since being dumped by his home state is going to forever devastate his reputation that he "saves" New York.

As to John Edwards, he knew he's not going to make it. He should know it that the John Edwards in 2008 is not the same one perceived by voters in 2004. This dismal third showing in home state of South Carolina confirmed as much. I have this feeling that he's staying in the race just to wreck the party of Hilary Clinton, and to enhance his standing as another veep contender, should Obama win the nomination. Some might argue that his votes would go to Obama who talks (and indeed most I get from this guy is talk) about "change." But I would argue that most of Edwards' votes would benefit Hilary Clinton who has a much strong Dem base and support.

The one thing that is surprising is the big swing of black votes in South Carolina. Most argue that Bill Clinton's high-handedness and aggressive talk against Obama helped push the black votes away. I see it more likely that the blacks really are more comfortable with someone of their own skin. But in a way, the results in SC half shatter the myth of Obama, that his candidacy transcends race.

As to the recent flurry of endorsement, of the Kennedy clan supporting Obama, I really don't see the fuss of it all. I, for one, don't vote based on endorsements. Who cares if Ted Kennedy or Caroline Kennedy endorses Obama anyways. Do these self-important Cape Cod elite clan really think that what they think matters much to what my vote would be? They must be kidding themselves, or seriously delusional. The same goes with the Culinary Workers Union endorsement of Obama, and he still lost Nevada.

Life would be so much more simpler if we can pigeon-hole people or things into categories and patterns, in order to "analyze" them. We can't. The statistics from mainstream media on the various poll results of the pre-election outcomes show us how poor these polls are in forecasts in how it's going to turn out.

It's fun watching the momentum shift and roller-coaster ride of the various campaigns. But the one thing that matters most to me is, I don't want another GOP in the White House. Not even an upright man like John McCain.

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