On the enigma of Greenspan and the wide-open Bernanke...

Leadership is a funny business. In times of uncertainty, in particular, people look up to the leader to do something magical, to pull them through. It does not matter if the leader really is feeling the stones when crossing the river. What matters is, how s/he *appears* to be in-the-know.

So goes the constant comparison of the ever popular Alan Greenspan, who rarely spoke in plain English (although he can surely speak in clear terms, after he left the Fed and in his book), and seldom revealed the decision making process of the Fed. But his enigma is alluring. The decisiveness in public action - in rate cuts; in admonishing the mass, like the famous "irrational exuberance" - is priceless.

It's unlikely that Ben Bernanke would do the same. No doubt he's a very capable person and academic figure. The differences between the two figures lie in personal trait. Bernanke prefers an open book; whereas Greenspan prefers a more closely guarded approach.

In a way, Greenspan is almost like the Dick Cheney style, although the latter is abominable. The secrecy is almost the same. But the basic and fundamental difference between them is that, Greenspan is able to keep an open mind, and can work across party lines (his hand-and-glove match with Robert Rubin and Larry Summers during the Clinton years), while Cheney completely fails in this account.

So, which one do I prefer - Greenspan or Bernanke? Greenspan wins by a wide margin. Privately, leadership by consensus very often can produce great result. Publicly, one often has to put up the brave poker face and a different persona. Leaders don't have to be loved or even liked. But when the mass starts having doubts in the leader, s/he is in trouble. When every single move that he makes is going to be doubted, the moves are not likely to be very effective.

This is probably one of the things that Bernanke will have to learn. Greenspan has probably perfected that skill during his long years in politico, and that gives him a natural edge over Bernanke.